Kerala Rising: From Exporting People to Exporting Ideas · Page 249 of 353

KERALA RISING · FROM EXPORTING PEOPLE TO EXPORTING IDEAS

KERALA RISING · FROM EXPORTING PEOPLE TO EXPORTING IDEAS
fall in inference price ignored), and revenues are
estimated low (cautious sign-on, conservative perunit figures, wide ranges). The conclusion is
therefore deliberately pessimistic, not optimistic.
The reason this is safe to do is that the gap the
book relies on, between a rounding-error
verification cost and budgets in the thousands of
crores, is so wide that the case holds even when
every number is pushed the wrong way. A model
that needs optimistic inputs is fragile; this one is
built to survive harsh ones. The one assumption
that cannot be made conservative, that the
behaviour change happens at all, is not a financial
input and is tested by the pilot, not the
spreadsheet.
The cost side
The institution’s cost has three layers. The one-time
build: founding the institution and building the
reusable stack, which is where the bulk of
capitalisation goes. The operating cost: a small,
Kerala-based core team, cloud and inference, field
coordination, audit, and the awards and events. And
the marginal cost of each new program: a
configuration cost a fraction the size of the build,
because the stack already exists.
The single most important line on the cost side is
also the smallest. Inference, the actual artificial
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