KERALA RISING · FROM EXPORTING PEOPLE TO EXPORTING IDEAS OP E RA TI NG SE LFSUF F I C I E NC Y C H A RA C TE R state operating support before selffunding works; it just takes longer to stop costing the state money Base Mid-horizon; operating revenue covers operating cost The expected path: capitalise once, reach self-sufficiency on schedule Upside Earlier; surplus reinvested into faster rollout The platform compounds; later programs are nearly free to add SCENARIO Exhibit 13 – Downside, base, and upside. The qualitative shape is the point; a finance reviewer should attach the state’s own figures using the assumptions register. WORKED EXAMPLE: HOW BREAK-EVEN ACTUALLY ARRIVES Break-even is not a single program turning profitable; it is the portfolio’s shared revenue lines crossing the institution’s operating cost. The path is the same in every scenario, only the timing differs. First, cleanliness builds the Reward Partner base and the diaspora patron relationships, acquisition the later programs inherit free. Then tourism, the strongest earner, comes online on that same base and on the same corridors, contributing revenue far above its own marginal cost. Each further program adds revenue surface (more partners, more corridors, more data) against a build cost already paid. At the point where the shared lines cover the 252