Kerala Rising: From Exporting People to Exporting Ideas · Page 322 of 353

KERALA RISING · FROM EXPORTING PEOPLE TO EXPORTING IDEAS

KERALA RISING · FROM EXPORTING PEOPLE TO EXPORTING IDEAS
Appendix B: Assumptions
register
Every decision-critical figure in this book is an
illustrative planning assumption, not a forecast. A
finance or technical reviewer should confirm each
against the latest official data and re-run the
Chapter 16 model with the state’s own preferred
inputs. The principal assumptions are:
The register below is meant to be used, not merely
read. The recommended way to interrogate this
book is to take each row, replace the illustrative
value with the most current official figure the
reviewer trusts, and re-derive the conclusion that
depends on it. In almost every case the conclusion
will survive, because the arguments are built on
order-of-magnitude gaps rather than precise point
estimates: it does not matter whether the waste
budget is three thousand crore or five, or whether
diabetes prevalence is twenty-two percent or
twenty-five, because the case turns on the gap
between large public values and a near-zero
verification cost, and that gap is robust to
considerable revision in either direction. The one
figure to test hardest is not in this register at all; it
is the behavioural response, which no public source
can supply and only the pilot can establish.
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